Global Shipping on Alert as US-Iran Deal Promises to Reopen Strategic Strait of Hormuz

A Potential Return to Maritime Stability

The global energy market and shipping industry are bracing for a significant shift as the United States and Iran prepare to sign a landmark agreement this Friday in Switzerland. According to analysts at trade data firm Kpler, ship traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz could surge to 50% of prewar levels within just 30 days of the deal’s implementation. The agreement is expected to lift the U.S. naval blockade of Iran, effectively reopening a waterway that historically handled 20% of the world’s global oil supply.

Clearing the Persian Gulf Backlog

Data indicates that the immediate aftermath of the reopening will see a massive exodus of stranded vessels. There are an estimated 118 fully loaded tankers currently trapped within the Persian Gulf that could exit the region within the first 15 days. While this initial surge is a one-time event, the long-term recovery depends on how many vessels choose to re-enter the Gulf. Kpler analysts predict that incoming tanker traffic could stabilize at roughly 12 vessels per day, significantly up from the near-standstill seen since the conflict began on February 28.

Lingering Security Concerns and Mine Risks

Despite the diplomatic progress, the shipping industry remains cautious. Maritime trade group Bimco has warned that the security situation remains volatile, specifically citing the threat of underwater mines. While President Donald Trump has downplayed the risk, Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently informed Congress that Iran had mined large segments of the strait. Jakob Larsen, Bimco’s chief safety and security officer, cautioned that the lack of technical detail makes transits ‘very risky’ at this stage. Shippers are expected to monitor the first wave of transits closely before insurance rates begin to normalize.

Diplomatic Friction Over Tolls and Governance

Political hurdles also remain, as Washington and Tehran appear to have conflicting interpretations of the treaty. Iranian state media reports suggest that after a 60-day toll-free grace period, Iran and Oman will jointly administer the strait and potentially collect fees. Conversely, U.S. Vice President JD Vance has stated that the American expectation is for the Strait of Hormuz to remain a toll-free international waterway indefinitely. This discrepancy could pose a threat to the durability of the deal as the maritime industry looks for long-term certainty.